De Graafschap 0-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dordrecht make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
De Graafschap's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. De Graafschap haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
De Graafschap at Stadion De Vijverberg this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — De Graafschap are significantly better at Stadion De Vijverberg than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dordrecht's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dordrecht are 0.50 PPG clear of De Graafschap in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: De Graafschap 2W, Dordrecht 1W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 60% and Dordrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 65% | Dordrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Dordrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.342. Data: 0 De Graafschap games / 0 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 31%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Dordrecht 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 42% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG De Graafschap 1.57 / Dordrecht 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Dordrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Dordrecht xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kick off?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
De Graafschap 0 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht part of?
De Graafschap vs Dordrecht is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 42% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both De Graafschap and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
Record (6 meetings): De Graafschap 2W | Draws 3 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from De Graafschap's attack rating (0.85) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.85x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.71
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.88
1.31
Dordrecht xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.31 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
De Graafschap come into this having played 40 games, going 19W 7D 14L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. De Graafschap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.75 PPG from 40 outings (18W 16D 6L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. Dordrecht haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for De Graafschap against 1.75 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
De Graafschap's home form reads 11W 4D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (7W 9D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
De Graafschap are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.90 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Pre-Season
Dordrecht
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 19W 7D 14L in their last 40 games (1.60 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 18W 16D 6L in their last 40 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Dordrecht away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.85 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.50 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
De Graafschap
5
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 3, Dordrecht have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Dordrecht?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 55% for De Graafschap, 75% for Dordrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for De Graafschap and 60% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of De Graafschap's games and 75% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of De Graafschap's matches and 60% of Dordrecht's.
Do De Graafschap and Dordrecht tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at De Graafschap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Relegation Round, as De Graafschap and Dordrecht drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.57 xG and Dordrecht 1.31 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Dordrecht landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 42% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 31%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 65%, Dordrecht 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — De Graafschap 1.60 PPG, Dordrecht 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.