Cambuur 2-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cambuur at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Cambuur host Fortuna Sittard at Cambuur Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Cambuur — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cambuur's home record at Cambuur Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Eredivisie games this season, Fortuna Sittard have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cambuur 0.90 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cambuur register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Fortuna Sittard in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cambuur, 1 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Fortuna Sittard winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Cambuur in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.

Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 73% and Fortuna Sittard 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 73% | Fortuna Sittard 68%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.98 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.123 / defence 1.751 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.715 / defence 1.573. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.363. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.573 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Cambuur games / 22 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cambuur 45% | Draw 21% | Fortuna Sittard 34%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.22 | Draw 4.76 | Fortuna Sittard 2.94. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 45% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 90% | Fortuna Sittard 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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