Cambuur 0-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 49%, yet in-form Excelsior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cambuur vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cambuur and Excelsior meet at Cambuur Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cambuur haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cambuur's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Cambuur Stadion this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Excelsior have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Excelsior haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Excelsior away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Excelsior arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cambuur register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Excelsior in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 94% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 74% and Excelsior 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 71% | Excelsior 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.72 xG and Excelsior 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.975 / defence 1.129 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.275. Data: 34 Cambuur games / 0 Excelsior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 27%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Excelsior 3.70. Cambuur hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 100% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Excelsior | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 49% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Cambuur 1.72 / Excelsior 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.975 / def 1.129 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Excelsior xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Excelsior kick off?
Cambuur vs Excelsior kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Cambuur 0 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is Cambuur vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Excelsior part of?
Cambuur vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 49% chance of winning, Excelsior a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cambuur and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Excelsior in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Excelsior's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Excelsior's attack (0.85x) against Cambuur's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
49%
2.04
24%
4.21
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.94
1.22
Excelsior xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
5%
20.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.22 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambuur's recent record stands at 11W 6D 17L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-W in the last five. Cambuur haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Excelsior, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 7L across 34 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. Excelsior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 5W 3D 8L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior's away record stands at 8W 5D 3L across 16 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.29 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Excelsior in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Pre-Season
Excelsior
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 11W 6D 17L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 16W 11D 7L in their last 34 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.12 PPG; Excelsior away: 1.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 4-1 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cambuur
0
Draws
2
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Excelsior have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when Cambuur 1-0 Excelsior.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 94% for Cambuur, 62% for Excelsior — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Cambuur and 56% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 94% of Cambuur's games and 62% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Cambuur's matches and 56% of Excelsior's.
Do Cambuur and Excelsior tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Cambuur 0-2 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.72 xG and Excelsior 1.22 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cambuur fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 49% | Draw 24% | Excelsior 27%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Excelsior win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 71%, Excelsior 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Excelsior's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Excelsior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.