AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AFAS Stadion plays host to AZ Alkmaar versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at AFAS Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Willem II have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Willem II in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for Willem II and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 51% versus Willem II 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 67% | Willem II 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.15 xG and Willem II 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.394 / defence 1.032 | Willem II attack 0.779 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.254. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 AZ Alkmaar games / 11 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 64% | Draw 20% | Willem II 17%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Willem II 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 70% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 64% | Draw 20% | Willem II 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.15 / Willem II 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.394 / def 1.032 | Willem II attack 0.779 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Willem II xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 2 Willem II.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 64% chance of winning, Willem II a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 1 | Willem II 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Willem II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.15. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.78x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
64%
1.57
20%
5.05
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.16
1.01
Willem II xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
12%
8.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
2%
51.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.01 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 24W 10D 11L from 45 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 9L across 45 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.91 for Willem II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 13W 4D 5L from 22 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 10W 7D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.87 scored and 0.91 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's scoring rate against Willem II's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Willem II in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 24W 10D 11L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while Willem II have gone 25W 11D 9L in their last 45 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Willem II away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.95 PPG; Willem II away: 1.68 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Willem II been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Willem II in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-1 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, Willem II have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2025, when Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Willem II?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 54%, Willem II 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (AZ Alkmaar) and 27% (Willem II).
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Willem II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AZ Alkmaar's recent matches and 54% of Willem II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of AZ Alkmaar's recent games and 27% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Willem II tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Willem II in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Willem II defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat AZ Alkmaar 1-2 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.15 xG and Willem II 1.01 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Willem II outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.39 / defence 1.03 against Willem II attack 0.78 / defence 0.93, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 64% | Draw 20% | Willem II 17%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Willem II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, Willem II 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Willem II's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.82 PPG, Willem II 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.