AZ Alkmaar 0-1 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 April 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 5W 2D 3L at AFAS Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Feyenoord (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Feyenoord in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 6 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 2–3 with Feyenoord winning.
It is worth noting that Feyenoord have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 54% versus Feyenoord 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 66% | Feyenoord 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.48 xG and Feyenoord 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.009 / defence 0.893 | Feyenoord attack 1.396 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.345. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 AZ Alkmaar games / 61 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 34% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 42%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Feyenoord 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 60% | Feyenoord 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 34% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.48 / Feyenoord 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.009 / def 0.893 | Feyenoord attack 1.396 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Feyenoord xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
AZ Alkmaar 0 - 1 Feyenoord.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 34% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Record (7 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 6W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.40x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
34%
2.97
24%
4.16
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.15
1.68
Feyenoord xG
2.97
34%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
6%
15.90
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.68 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 32W 15D 14L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord's form line: 41W 14D 6L from 61 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AZ Alkmaar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (18W 5D 7L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 19W 8D 3L from 30 away games — 2.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.51 scored and 0.95 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Feyenoord in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 32W 15D 14L in their last 61 games (1.82 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 41W 14D 6L in their last 61 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.97 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.17 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 53%, Feyenoord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for AZ Alkmaar and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 67% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out AZ Alkmaar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat AZ Alkmaar 0-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.48 xG and Feyenoord 1.68 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 0.91, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 34% | Draw 24% | Feyenoord 42%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 66%, Feyenoord 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.82. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.