AZ Alkmaar 1-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face FC Volendam.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees FC Volendam travel to AFAS Stadion to take on AZ Alkmaar. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 January 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
AZ Alkmaar carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AZ Alkmaar have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while FC Volendam have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AZ Alkmaar and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Volendam trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 64% and FC Volendam 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 65% | FC Volendam 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.56 xG and FC Volendam 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.196 / defence 1.229 | FC Volendam attack 0.590 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.424. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 AZ Alkmaar games / 17 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 70% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 13%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | FC Volendam 7.69. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 100% | FC Volendam 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 70% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 59% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.56 / FC Volendam 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.196 / def 1.229 | FC Volendam attack 0.590 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC Volendam xG
59%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 70% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam?
Record (5 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 3W | Draws 2 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 1.20x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
70%
1.42
17%
6.05
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.59
1.03
FC Volendam xG
1.42
70%
Home win
6.05
17%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
8%
12.91
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
1%
98.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.03 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 25W 13D 14L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 29W 9D 14L from 52 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AZ Alkmaar on 1.69 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 11W 6D 8L from 25 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.96 scored and 1.38 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 25W 13D 14L in their last 52 games (1.69 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 29W 9D 14L in their last 52 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or FC Volendam away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.72 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when AZ Alkmaar won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
0
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, FC Volendam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — AZ Alkmaar at 76%, FC Volendam at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for AZ Alkmaar and 72% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 64% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 72% of FC Volendam's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and FC Volendam tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out FC Volendam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat FC Volendam 1-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.56 xG and FC Volendam 1.03 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.20 / defence 1.23 against FC Volendam attack 0.59 / defence 1.28, drawn from 50/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 70% | Draw 17% | FC Volendam 13%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, FC Volendam 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.69 PPG, FC Volendam 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.