Almere City FC 5-0 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Almere City FC vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Vitesse travel to Yanmar Stadion to take on Almere City FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 December 2023, 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Almere City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Yanmar Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Almere City FC) versus 0.80 (Vitesse). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Almere City FC trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Vitesse trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almere City FC 53% versus Vitesse 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almere City FC 49% | Vitesse 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almere City FC 1.35 xG and Vitesse 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almere City FC attack 0.594 / defence 1.387 | Vitesse attack 0.748 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.509. Almere City FC's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vitesse bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Almere City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Almere City FC games / 49 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almere City FC 31% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 40%. Fair-value odds: Almere City FC 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Vitesse 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Almere City FC 50% | Vitesse 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almere City FC vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Yanmar Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almere City FC 31% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Almere City FC 1.35 / Vitesse 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Almere City FC attack 0.594 / def 1.387 | Vitesse attack 0.748 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Almere City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Vitesse xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almere City FC vs Vitesse kick off?
Almere City FC vs Vitesse kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Yanmar Stadion.
What was the final score in Almere City FC vs Vitesse?
Almere City FC 5 - 0 Vitesse.
Where is Almere City FC vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Yanmar Stadion.
What competition is Almere City FC vs Vitesse part of?
Almere City FC vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Almere City FC vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Almere City FC a 31% chance of winning, Vitesse a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almere City FC vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Almere City FC and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Almere City FC vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almere City FC and Vitesse in?
Almere City FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Vitesse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Almere City FC's attack rating (0.59) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Almere City FC's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.46
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Almere City FC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.57
Vitesse xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
6%
15.64
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almere City FC vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Almere City FC and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Almere City FC and 1.57 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Almere City FC vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Almere City FC's recent record stands at 22W 12D 15L from 49 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 24L across 49 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Almere City FC by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Almere City FC have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 7W 4D 13L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Almere City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Almere City FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.16 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almere City FC
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almere City FC and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Almere City FC have gone 22W 12D 15L in their last 49 games (1.59 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almere City FC at home or Vitesse away?
Almere City FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almere City FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Almere City FC or Vitesse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almere City FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Vitesse in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almere City FC and Vitesse runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Almere City FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almere City FC's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Almere City FC
2
Draws
0
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almere City FC and Vitesse?
From 4 meetings on record, Almere City FC have won 2, Vitesse have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Almere City FC and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Vitesse 1-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Almere City FC and Vitesse?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Almere City FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almere City FC 58%, Vitesse 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Almere City FC) and 58% (Vitesse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almere City FC home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almere City FC play Vitesse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Almere City FC's recent matches and 46% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almere City FC vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Almere City FC's matches and 58% of Vitesse's.
Do Almere City FC and Vitesse tend to score early?
Almere City FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Almere City FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Vitesse 5-0 at Yanmar Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almere City FC 1.35 xG and Vitesse 1.57 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Almere City FC beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almere City FC attack 0.59 / defence 1.39 against Vitesse attack 0.75 / defence 1.36, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almere City FC 31% | Draw 29% | Vitesse 40%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almere City FC 49%, Vitesse 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almere City FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vitesse's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Almere City FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.