Ajax 2-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ajax face PEC Zwolle.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ajax host PEC Zwolle at Johan Cruijff ArenA in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax's home record at Johan Cruijff ArenA: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Ajax have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ajax register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PEC Zwolle in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ajax: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for PEC Zwolle, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 3–1 with Ajax winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ajax and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Ajax in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajax 71% and PEC Zwolle 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ajax 76% | PEC Zwolle 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.35 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.253 / defence 0.824 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.872 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.279. Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 2.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Ajax games / 46 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 69% | Draw 18% | PEC Zwolle 13%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.45 | Draw 5.56 | PEC Zwolle 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajax at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajax 60% | PEC Zwolle 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Johan Cruijff ArenA • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 69% | Draw 18% | PEC Zwolle 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 54% | xG Ajax 2.35 / PEC Zwolle 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.253 / def 0.824 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.872 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Ajax (69%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.92
PEC Zwolle xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Ajax vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Johan Cruijff ArenA.
What was the final score in Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Ajax 2 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Ajax vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff ArenA.
What competition is Ajax vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Ajax vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 69% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 13% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ajax and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and PEC Zwolle?
Record (4 meetings): Ajax 3W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Ajax and PEC Zwolle in?
Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ajax's attack at 1.25x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
69%
1.44
18%
5.65
13%
7.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.27
0.92
PEC Zwolle xG
1.44
69%
Home win
5.65
18%
Draw
7.64
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
10%
10.45
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
1%
79.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Ajax and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Ajax and 0.92 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Ajax have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 23W 13D 9L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 12W 12D 21L from 45 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against PEC Zwolle.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ajax have posted 2.18 PPG from 22 outings (14W 6D 2L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 9D 9L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajax are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.29 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 23W 13D 9L in their last 45 games (1.82 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 12W 12D 21L in their last 45 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Ajax's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.18 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Ajax won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Ajax
2
Draws
0
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Ajax have won 6, PEC Zwolle have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-0 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and PEC Zwolle?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 64%, PEC Zwolle 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Ajax and 59% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ajax's games and 64% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ajax vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Ajax's matches and 59% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Ajax and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajax cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 at Johan Cruijff ArenA, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.35 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.92 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.25 / defence 0.82 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 69% | Draw 18% | PEC Zwolle 13%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 69%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 76%, PEC Zwolle 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.