ADO Den Haag 1-4 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this ADO Den Haag vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Groningen meet at WerkTalent Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 10:15 UTC.
Current Form
ADO Den Haag's overall Eredivisie record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at WerkTalent Stadion, ADO Den Haag have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WerkTalent Stadion.
Groningen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.70 for Groningen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — ADO Den Haag lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Groningen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ADO Den Haag 50% versus Groningen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ADO Den Haag 72% | Groningen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.34 xG and Groningen 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.862 / defence 1.150 | Groningen attack 0.980 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.513. Data: 1 ADO Den Haag games / 35 Groningen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 29% | Draw 26% | Groningen 45%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Groningen 2.22. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 50% | Groningen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: WerkTalent Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 29% | Draw 26% | Groningen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.34 / Groningen 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.862 / def 1.150 | Groningen attack 0.980 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: Groningen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Groningen xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Groningen kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Groningen kicked off at 10:15 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at WerkTalent Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Groningen?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 4 Groningen.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at WerkTalent Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Groningen part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 29% chance of winning, Groningen a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Groningen?
Record (2 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 0 | Groningen 1W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Groningen in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Groningen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 0.86x the league average against Groningen's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.98x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
29%
3.43
26%
3.84
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.05
1.71
Groningen xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
5%
18.90
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.71 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, ADO Den Haag have picked up 2.28 PPG on a 27W 1D 8L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Groningen's form line: 15W 6D 15L from 36 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, ADO Den Haag are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, ADO Den Haag have posted 2.35 PPG from 17 outings (13W 1D 3L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 7W 2D 8L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.42 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Groningen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Groningen in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 27W 1D 8L in their last 36 games (2.28 PPG), while Groningen have gone 15W 6D 15L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Groningen away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.35 PPG; Groningen away: 1.35 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Groningen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Groningen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 1-4 on 16 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
ADO Den Haag
0
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Groningen?
From 3 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 1, Groningen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-4 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 59%, Groningen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for ADO Den Haag and 41% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of ADO Den Haag's games and 53% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 41% of Groningen's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Groningen tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Groningen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of ADO Den Haag.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat ADO Den Haag 1-4 at WerkTalent Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.34 xG and Groningen 1.71 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Groningen attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 29% | Draw 26% | Groningen 45%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 72%, Groningen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Groningen's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.