Willem II 1-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Final sees FC Volendam travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 20 May 2026, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Koning Willem II Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. FC Volendam haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Willem II 2.50 PPG, FC Volendam 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 53% versus FC Volendam 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 50% | FC Volendam 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.38 xG and FC Volendam 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.839 / defence 0.748 | FC Volendam attack 1.006 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.421. Willem II's defence rating of 0.748 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Willem II games / 38 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 44% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 29%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | FC Volendam 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 40% | FC Volendam 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Final | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 May 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 44% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Willem II 1.38 / FC Volendam 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.839 / def 0.748 | FC Volendam attack 1.006 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Willem II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.07
FC Volendam xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs FC Volendam kick off?
Willem II vs FC Volendam kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 20 May 2026 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs FC Volendam?
Willem II 1 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Willem II vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs FC Volendam part of?
Willem II vs FC Volendam is a Final fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 44% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Willem II and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and FC Volendam in?
Willem II (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Willem II's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.71
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.44
1.07
FC Volendam xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Willem II and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Willem II and 1.07 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Willem II come into this having played 38 games, going 21W 9D 8L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 2.16 PPG from 38 outings (26W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. FC Volendam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.89 PPG, FC Volendam on 2.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Willem II's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 1.95 points per game from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.29 scored and 1.26 conceded. FC Volendam's attacking output running into Willem II's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 63%.
Defensively: Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
FC Volendam
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 21W 9D 8L in their last 38 games (1.89 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 26W 4D 8L in their last 38 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.84 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Willem II or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and FC Volendam runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Willem II
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC Volendam?
From 2 meetings on record, Willem II have won 1, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Willem II.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 47%, FC Volendam 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Willem II) and 74% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 5% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Willem II's games and 74% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 37% of Willem II's matches and 74% of FC Volendam's.
Do Willem II and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Willem II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Final, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.38 xG and FC Volendam 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Volendam outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.84 / defence 0.75 against FC Volendam attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 44% | Draw 27% | FC Volendam 29%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC Volendam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, FC Volendam 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.89 PPG, FC Volendam 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.