Willem II 1-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Friday 21 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Willem II have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Koning Willem II Stadion.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Willem II against 1.60 for Almere City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 49% versus Almere City FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 53% | Almere City FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.43 xG and Almere City FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.786 / defence 0.942 | Almere City FC attack 1.005 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.366. Willem II's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Willem II games / 49 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Almere City FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 40% | Almere City FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 40% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Willem II 1.43 / Almere City FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.786 / def 0.942 | Almere City FC attack 1.005 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Willem II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Almere City FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Almere City FC kick off?
Willem II vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Willem II 1 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Willem II vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Almere City FC part of?
Willem II vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 40% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Willem II and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Almere City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Willem II and Almere City FC in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Willem II's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.00x) against Willem II's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.90
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.72
1.29
Almere City FC xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Willem II and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Willem II and 1.29 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 9D 22L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 45 outings (15W 8D 22L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Willem II against 1.18 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Willem II's home form reads 10W 4D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 14W 9D 22L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 15W 8D 22L in their last 45 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Almere City FC away?
Willem II's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.62 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Willem II have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Almere City FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Willem II have won 5, Almere City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Willem II 2-0 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Almere City FC?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 43%, Almere City FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Willem II) and 71% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Willem II have failed to score in 29% of games; Almere City FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Willem II's recent matches and 62% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Willem II's matches and 71% of Almere City FC's.
Do Willem II and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and Almere City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II and Almere City FC finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.43 xG and Almere City FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.79 / defence 0.94 against Almere City FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 40% | Draw 26% | Almere City FC 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 53%, Almere City FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.13 PPG, Almere City FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.