Waalwijk 1-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as Waalwijk welcome Roda to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 4W 2D 4L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Waalwijk) versus 1.20 (Roda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 4–1 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Roda trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 65% and Roda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | Roda 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.39 xG and Roda 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.899 / defence 1.081 | Roda attack 1.091 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.768 / away 1.490. Data: 26 Waalwijk games / 64 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.22. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Waalwijk 1.39 / Roda 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.899 / def 1.081 | Roda attack 1.091 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.768 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Roda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Roda xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Roda kick off?
Waalwijk vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Roda?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Roda.
Where is Waalwijk vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Roda part of?
Waalwijk vs Roda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 29% chance of winning, Roda a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Waalwijk and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 0 | Roda 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Roda in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.90) and Roda's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
29%
3.43
26%
3.84
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.15
1.76
Roda xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
5%
19.90
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.76 for Roda, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 16W 14D 30L from 60 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 20L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.03 PPG, Roda on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 10W 7D 13L from 30 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 11W 8D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.48 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Roda in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Roda in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 16W 14D 30L in their last 60 games (1.03 PPG), while Roda have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.23 PPG; Roda away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Roda runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Roda specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
2
Draws
1
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Roda?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, Roda have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Waalwijk 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 60%, Roda at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Waalwijk and 70% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Waalwijk's games and 70% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Waalwijk's matches and 70% of Roda's.
Do Waalwijk and Roda tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Roda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.39 xG and Roda 1.76 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Roda attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 29% | Draw 26% | Roda 45%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Roda 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.03 PPG, Roda 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.