Waalwijk 5-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 36 as Waalwijk welcome Emmen to Mandemakers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Waalwijk at Mandemakers Stadion this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Waalwijk 1.50 PPG, Emmen 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Emmen and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Emmen trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 68% and Emmen 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 68% | Emmen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.75 xG and Emmen 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.953 / defence 1.123 | Emmen attack 0.902 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.486. Data: 35 Waalwijk games / 73 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 23% | Emmen 33%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Emmen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 44% | Draw 23% | Emmen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Waalwijk 1.75 / Emmen 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.953 / def 1.123 | Emmen attack 0.902 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.486 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Emmen xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Emmen kick off?
Waalwijk vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Waalwijk 5 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Waalwijk vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Emmen part of?
Waalwijk vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 44% chance of winning, Emmen a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Waalwijk and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Emmen?
Record (3 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 2 | Emmen 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Emmen in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.95) and Emmen's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
44%
2.28
23%
4.35
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.26
1.50
Emmen xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.50 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk come into this having played 69 games, going 20W 17D 32L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.30 PPG from 69 outings (26W 12D 31L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.12 PPG, Emmen on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Waalwijk's home form reads 12W 7D 15L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.18 points per game from 34 outings (12W 4D 18L).
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.55 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Emmen in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 20W 17D 32L in their last 69 games (1.12 PPG), while Emmen have gone 26W 12D 31L in their last 69 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Emmen away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.26 PPG; Emmen away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2026, when Waalwijk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Emmen?
From 4 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Emmen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Waalwijk 5-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Emmen?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 65%, Emmen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Waalwijk and 59% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Waalwijk's games and 47% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Waalwijk's matches and 59% of Emmen's.
Do Waalwijk and Emmen tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Emmen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Emmen 5-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.75 xG and Emmen 1.50 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Emmen attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 44% | Draw 23% | Emmen 33%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 68%, Emmen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.12 PPG, Emmen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.