VVV Venlo 1-0 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as VVV Venlo face Telstar.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Telstar travel to Covebo Stadion - De Koel - to take on VVV Venlo in Eerste Divisie (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, VVV Venlo have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
VVV Venlo's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Telstar — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Telstar's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: VVV Venlo 1.10 PPG, Telstar 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, VVV Venlo have won 4, Telstar 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Nov 2024, ended VVV Venlo 0–4 Telstar — a Telstar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
VVV Venlo trading profile (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Telstar trading profile (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 56% versus Telstar 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 58% | Telstar 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.36 xG and Telstar 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.706 / defence 1.031 | Telstar attack 0.880 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.399. VVV Venlo's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.36. Telstar's defence rating of 1.249 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing VVV Venlo's projected output up. Data: built from VVV Venlo's last 59 games and Telstar's last 59.
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 38% | Draw 29% | Telstar 34%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.64 | Draw 3.51 | Telstar 2.98. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VVV Venlo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VVV Venlo 50% (last 10 home games) | Telstar 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 22 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 38% | Draw 29% | Telstar 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG VVV Venlo 1.36 / Telstar 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.706 / def 1.031 | Telstar attack 0.880 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Telstar xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ VVV Venlo vs Telstar FAQs
What time does VVV Venlo vs Telstar kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 17 January 2025 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Telstar?
VVV Venlo 1 - 0 Telstar.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Telstar part of?
VVV Venlo vs Telstar is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 22) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 38% chance of winning, Telstar a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both VVV Venlo and Telstar will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will VVV Venlo vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 0.71x the league average against Telstar's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus VVV Venlo's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from VVV Venlo's last 59 games and Telstar's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.51
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.63
1.27
Telstar xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ VVV Venlo vs Telstar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.27 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 18W 13D 28L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Telstar's form line: 16W 16D 27L from 59 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: VVV Venlo on 1.14 PPG, Telstar on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 30 home games (11W 6D 13L).
On the road, Telstar have gone 5W 6D 19L from their last 30 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.34 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Telstar
Blended
VVV Venlo (Home) vs Telstar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
VVV Venlo
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ VVV Venlo vs Telstar Form FAQs
What form are VVV Venlo and Telstar in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 18W 13D 28L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Telstar have gone 16W 16D 27L in their last 59 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Telstar away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.30 PPG; Telstar away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 17 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Nov 2024, when Telstar won Telstar 4-0 VVV Venlo.
VVV Venlo's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
2
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ VVV Venlo vs Telstar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Telstar?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, VVV Venlo have won 5, Telstar have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Telstar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2025: VVV Venlo 1-0 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Telstar?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 60%, Telstar 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (VVV Venlo) and 47% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 27% of games; Telstar in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ VVV Venlo vs Telstar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in VVV Venlo and Telstar matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of VVV Venlo's games and 53% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are VVV Venlo and Telstar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 47% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and Telstar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 87% of Telstar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VVV Venlo edge out Telstar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Telstar 1-0 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.36 xG and Telstar 1.27 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Telstar landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.71 / defence 1.03 against Telstar attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 38% | Draw 29% | Telstar 34%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 58%, Telstar 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Telstar's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.14 PPG, Telstar 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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