VVV Venlo 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this VVV Venlo vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Covebo Stadion - De Koel - plays host to VVV Venlo versus Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 13 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
VVV Venlo (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for VVV Venlo against 2.00 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — VVV Venlo register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Roda in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VVV Venlo lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Roda — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 56% versus Roda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 64% | Roda 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.42 xG and Roda 2.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 1.054 / defence 1.427 | Roda attack 1.219 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.439. Roda have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 2.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 VVV Venlo games / 25 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 20% | Draw 18% | Roda 61%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 5.00 | Draw 5.56 | Roda 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Roda (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 2.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.92 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 70% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 20% | Draw 18% | Roda 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 70% | xG VVV Venlo 1.42 / Roda 2.50 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 1.054 / def 1.427 | Roda attack 1.219 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Roda (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
2.50
Roda xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Roda kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Roda kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Roda?
VVV Venlo 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Roda part of?
VVV Venlo vs Roda is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 20% chance of winning, Roda a 61% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both VVV Venlo and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): VVV Venlo 0W | Draws 1 | Roda 0W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Roda in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Roda (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 1.05x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.22x) against VVV Venlo's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 2.50.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 1-3 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
20%
4.89
18%
5.41
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.3%
Away win
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
3.92
2.50
Roda xG
4.89
20%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
8%
12.22
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
2%
59.81
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 2.50 for Roda, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 10W 2D 13L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 11W 9D 5L from 25 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.68 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (6W 0D 6L).
On the road, Roda have gone 6W 4D 2L from 12 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 2.04 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda in 60%.
Defensively: Roda in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Roda in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 10W 2D 13L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Roda have gone 11W 9D 5L in their last 25 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.50 PPG; Roda away: 1.83 PPG.
Have VVV Venlo or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
VVV Venlo have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Roda in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 7 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VVV Venlo
6
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 2, Roda have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Roda 2-2 VVV Venlo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Roda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for VVV Venlo, 67% for Roda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for VVV Venlo and 75% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of VVV Venlo's games and 67% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of VVV Venlo's matches and 75% of Roda's.
Do VVV Venlo and Roda tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Roda in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo and Roda finished level at 1-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.42 xG and Roda 2.50 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Roda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 1.05 / defence 1.43 against Roda attack 1.22 / defence 1.14, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 20% | Draw 18% | Roda 61%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 64%, Roda 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.28 PPG, Roda 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.