VVV Venlo 1-1 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Covebo Stadion - De Koel - plays host to VVV Venlo versus Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 14 October 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
VVV Venlo (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Roda are 0.80 PPG clear of VVV Venlo in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Roda in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VVV Venlo lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
VVV Venlo — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Roda — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VVV Venlo 68% and Roda 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 55% | Roda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.26 xG and Roda 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.993 / defence 1.115 | Roda attack 0.984 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.373. Roda's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 VVV Venlo games / 47 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 32% | Draw 25% | Roda 43%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 70% | Roda 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Oct 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 32% | Draw 25% | Roda 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG VVV Venlo 1.26 / Roda 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.993 / def 1.115 | Roda attack 0.984 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Roda (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Roda xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Roda kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Roda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 October 2023 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Roda?
VVV Venlo 1 - 1 Roda.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Roda part of?
VVV Venlo vs Roda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 32% chance of winning, Roda a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both VVV Venlo and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Roda?
Record (4 meetings): VVV Venlo 0W | Draws 3 | Roda 1W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Roda in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Roda (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates VVV Venlo's attack at 0.99x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.98x) against VVV Venlo's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
32%
3.15
25%
3.96
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.77
1.51
Roda xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
7%
14.22
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.51 for Roda, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 18W 15D 14L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 19W 8D 20L from 47 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.38 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
On the road, Roda have gone 7W 4D 12L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.51 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VVV Venlo have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Roda in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 18W 15D 14L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Roda have gone 19W 8D 20L in their last 47 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Roda away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.39 PPG; Roda away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 7 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
VVV Venlo
6
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 2, Roda have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Roda 2-2 VVV Venlo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 65%, Roda 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (VVV Venlo) and 52% (Roda).
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo have failed to score in 26% of games; Roda in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of VVV Venlo's games and 48% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 52% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and Roda tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Roda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo and Roda share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo and Roda finished level at 1-1 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.26 xG and Roda 1.51 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Roda attack 0.98 / defence 0.75, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 32% | Draw 25% | Roda 43%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 55%, Roda 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.47 PPG, Roda 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.