VVV Venlo 1-2 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Covebo Stadion - De Koel - plays host to VVV Venlo versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VVV Venlo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 3L across 9 games at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - this term (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — VVV Venlo are significantly better at Covebo Stadion - De Koel - than their overall form suggests.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.11 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in VVV Venlo's favour (1.00 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 50% versus Jong Utrecht 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 56% | Jong Utrecht 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 1.35 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.933 / defence 0.976 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.796 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.549. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing VVV Venlo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 VVV Venlo games / 18 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 40% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 33%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Jong Utrecht 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VVV Venlo as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 56% | Jong Utrecht 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Covebo Stadion - De Koel - • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 40% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG VVV Venlo 1.35 / Jong Utrecht 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.933 / def 0.976 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.796 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Jong Utrecht xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht?
VVV Venlo 1 - 2 Jong Utrecht.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht part of?
VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 40% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both VVV Venlo and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong Utrecht in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
VVV Venlo's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Jong Utrecht's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.80x) against VVV Venlo's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.76
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.55
1.20
Jong Utrecht xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.20 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, VVV Venlo have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 7W 2D 9L record — L-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht's form line: 5W 4D 9L from 18 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for VVV Venlo against 1.06 for Jong Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, VVV Venlo have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — VVV Venlo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 4D 3L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VVV Venlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.22 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht in 61%.
Last 18 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 7W 2D 9L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 4D 9L in their last 18 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Jong Utrecht away?
VVV Venlo's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.78 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VVV Venlo won 4-1 on 25 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VVV Venlo
4
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 4, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 2-2 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Jong Utrecht?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for VVV Venlo, 78% for Jong Utrecht — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for VVV Venlo and 67% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VVV Venlo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of VVV Venlo's games and 78% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VVV Venlo vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of VVV Venlo's matches and 67% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do VVV Venlo and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Utrecht defy the odds to beat VVV Venlo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat VVV Venlo 1-2 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.35 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.20 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.93 / defence 0.98 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 40% | Draw 27% | Jong Utrecht 33%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Jong Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 56%, Jong Utrecht 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.28 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.