Telstar 0-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host Jong AZ at 711 Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Telstar 1.40 PPG, Jong AZ 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Telstar have won 2, Jong AZ 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Telstar in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 61% and Jong AZ 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 54% | Jong AZ 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 2.04 xG and Jong AZ 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.941 / defence 1.193 | Jong AZ attack 0.886 / defence 1.478. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.289. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.478 — this is suppressing Telstar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Telstar games / 41 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 51% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 23%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Jong AZ 4.35. Telstar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Telstar at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Telstar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 80% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 51% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Telstar 2.04 / Jong AZ 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.941 / def 1.193 | Jong AZ attack 0.886 / def 1.478 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Telstar (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Jong AZ xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Jong AZ kick off?
Telstar vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Telstar 0 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Telstar vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Jong AZ part of?
Telstar vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 51% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Telstar and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong AZ?
Record (6 meetings): Telstar 2W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 2W.
What form are Telstar and Jong AZ in?
Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.86
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.41
1.36
Jong AZ xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
3%
33.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Telstar and 1.36 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 8D 22L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ's form line: 18W 8D 15L from 41 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Jong AZ are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Telstar.
Venue Form
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 4W 6D 10L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.73 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 11W 8D 22L in their last 41 games (1.00 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 18W 8D 15L in their last 41 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Jong AZ away?
Telstar's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.30 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Telstar's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
3
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Jong AZ?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Jong AZ have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2025, when Jong AZ 1-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Jong AZ?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Telstar at 75%, Jong AZ at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Telstar and 75% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Telstar's games and 80% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Telstar's matches and 75% of Jong AZ's.
Do Telstar and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Telstar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar and Jong AZ finished level at 0-0 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.04 xG and Jong AZ 1.36 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Telstar fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.94 / defence 1.19 against Jong AZ attack 0.89 / defence 1.48, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 51% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 23%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 54%, Jong AZ 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong AZ's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.