Telstar 0-3 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Telstar welcome Heracles to BUKO Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Telstar have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Telstar have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Telstar at BUKO Stadion this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Heracles — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heracles away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Heracles's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Telstar's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Telstar trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Heracles trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 62% versus Heracles 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 62% | Heracles 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.18 xG and Heracles 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.693 / defence 1.270 | Heracles attack 1.072 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.337. Telstar's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Telstar games / 6 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 24% | Draw 24% | Heracles 52%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Heracles 1.92. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Telstar 50% | Heracles 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 24% | Draw 24% | Heracles 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Telstar 1.18 / Heracles 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.693 / def 1.270 | Heracles attack 1.072 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Heracles (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Heracles xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Heracles kick off?
Telstar vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Heracles?
Telstar 0 - 3 Heracles.
Where is Telstar vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Heracles part of?
Telstar vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 24% chance of winning, Heracles a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Telstar and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Telstar and Heracles in?
Telstar (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Heracles (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Telstar's attack at 0.69x the league average against Heracles's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
24%
4.13
24%
4.21
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.00
1.82
Heracles xG
4.13
24%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
4%
25.47
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Telstar and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Telstar and 1.82 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Telstar have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 10W 10D 22L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Telstar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Heracles's form line: 13W 8D 21L from 42 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 0.95 PPG, Heracles on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Telstar have posted 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (5W 4D 12L).
On the road, Heracles have gone 4W 2D 15L from 21 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.21 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Heracles in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Heracles have gone 13W 8D 21L in their last 42 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Heracles away?
Telstar's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 0.90 PPG; Heracles away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when Heracles won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Telstar
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Heracles?
From 4 meetings on record, Telstar have won 1, Heracles have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Telstar 3-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 57%, Heracles 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Telstar) and 52% (Heracles). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 29% of games; Heracles in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Telstar's recent matches and 33% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Telstar vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Telstar's matches and 52% of Heracles's.
Do Telstar and Heracles tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Heracles in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heracles run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat Telstar 0-3 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.18 xG and Heracles 1.82 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Heracles outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.69 / defence 1.27 against Heracles attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 24% | Draw 24% | Heracles 52%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 62%, Heracles 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Heracles's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 0.95 PPG, Heracles 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heracles (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.