Roda 2-2 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Roda and Jong AZ meet at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 2W 2D 3L this season (7 games, 1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong AZ (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 2W 0D 4L from 6 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Roda's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Jong AZ's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Jong AZ half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 54% versus Jong AZ 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 69% | Jong AZ 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.31 xG and Jong AZ 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.955 / defence 1.061 | Jong AZ attack 0.534 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.555. Data: 13 Roda games / 14 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 46% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 25%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Jong AZ 4.00. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 57% | Jong AZ 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 46% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Roda 1.31 / Jong AZ 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.955 / def 1.061 | Jong AZ attack 0.534 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: Roda (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Jong AZ xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong AZ kick off?
Roda vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong AZ?
Roda 2 - 2 Jong AZ.
Where is Roda vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong AZ part of?
Roda vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 46% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Roda and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong AZ?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and Jong AZ in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.95x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.53x) against Roda's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.53
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Roda xG
Total xG
2.19
0.88
Jong AZ xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
7%
14.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Roda and 0.88 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda's recent record stands at 6W 3D 4L from 13 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 7L across 13 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Roda against 1.23 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Roda have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 2W 0D 4L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.77 scored and 1.00 conceded. Roda's scoring rate against Jong AZ's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Roda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong AZ away?
Roda's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.33 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Jong AZ have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 6-1 on 12 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
2
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, Jong AZ have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Jong AZ 2-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, Jong AZ 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Roda) and 33% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Jong AZ in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Roda's recent matches and 33% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Roda's recent games and 33% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as Roda and Jong AZ drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.31 xG and Jong AZ 0.88 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Jong AZ attack 0.53 / defence 1.08, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 46% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 25%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 69%, Jong AZ 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong AZ's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.62 PPG, Jong AZ 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.