NAC Breda 0-2 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VVV Venlo at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees VVV Venlo travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 2W 4D 4L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
VVV Venlo — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. VVV Venlo have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: NAC Breda 1.00 PPG, VVV Venlo 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for NAC Breda, 2 for VVV Venlo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
VVV Venlo trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 49% versus VVV Venlo 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 51% | VVV Venlo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.38 xG and VVV Venlo 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | VVV Venlo attack 0.929 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.449. Data: 1 NAC Breda games / 39 VVV Venlo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 34% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 41%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | VVV Venlo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VVV Venlo as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | VVV Venlo 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 34% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG NAC Breda 1.38 / VVV Venlo 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | VVV Venlo attack 0.929 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.55
VVV Venlo xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo kick off?
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
NAC Breda 0 - 2 VVV Venlo.
Where is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo part of?
NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 34% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both NAC Breda and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 3W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.86x the league average against VVV Venlo's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VVV Venlo's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
34%
2.93
25%
4.08
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.93
1.55
VVV Venlo xG
2.93
34%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
7%
13.79
10%
9.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.55 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 7W 11D 17L from 35 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VVV Venlo, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 17L across 35 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for VVV Venlo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 0.91 PPG, VVV Venlo on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VVV Venlo's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.34 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
VVV Venlo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 7W 11D 17L in their last 35 games (0.91 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 12W 6D 17L in their last 35 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or VVV Venlo away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.18 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda's record when hosting VVV Venlo specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and VVV Venlo?
From 7 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 3, VVV Venlo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when NAC Breda 0-2 VVV Venlo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, VVV Venlo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (NAC Breda) and 59% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 35% of games; VVV Venlo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 53% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of NAC Breda's recent games and 59% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat NAC Breda 0-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.38 xG and VVV Venlo 1.55 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against VVV Venlo attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 34% | Draw 25% | VVV Venlo 41%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 51%, VVV Venlo 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 0.91 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.