NAC Breda 0-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as NAC Breda welcome FC Volendam to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Volendam — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 0, FC Volendam 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Volendam trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 48% versus FC Volendam 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 52% | FC Volendam 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.32 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.932 / defence 0.779 | FC Volendam attack 1.104 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.543. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. NAC Breda's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 NAC Breda games / 21 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 37%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | FC Volendam 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG NAC Breda 1.32 / FC Volendam 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.932 / def 0.779 | FC Volendam attack 1.104 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Volendam xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC Volendam kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
NAC Breda 0 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam part of?
NAC Breda vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 37% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both NAC Breda and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC Volendam in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.81
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.64
1.33
FC Volendam xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.33 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 21 games, going 7W 7D 7L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 2.29 PPG from 21 outings (14W 6D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 5W 4D 1L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 2.20 points per game from 10 outings (6W 4D 0L).
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.48 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 71%.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 games (1.33 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 6D 1L in their last 21 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.90 PPG; FC Volendam away: 2.20 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, FC Volendam 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (NAC Breda) and 60% (FC Volendam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NAC Breda's games and 70% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of NAC Breda's matches and 60% of FC Volendam's.
Do NAC Breda and FC Volendam tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NAC Breda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and FC Volendam finished level at 0-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.32 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.93 / defence 0.78 against FC Volendam attack 1.10 / defence 1.22, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 37% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 37%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 52%, FC Volendam 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Volendam's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.