NAC Breda 1-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 22 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Dordrecht (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward NAC Breda. A 1.10 PPG lead over Dordrecht (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: NAC Breda 0W, Dordrecht 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 94% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 46% versus Dordrecht 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 51% | Dordrecht 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.20 xG and Dordrecht 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.016 / defence 0.728 | Dordrecht attack 0.716 / defence 1.712. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.452. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.712 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. NAC Breda's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 NAC Breda games / 35 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 70% | Draw 18% | Dordrecht 11%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Dordrecht 9.09. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | Dordrecht 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 70% | Draw 18% | Dordrecht 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 47% | xG NAC Breda 2.20 / Dordrecht 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.016 / def 0.728 | Dordrecht attack 0.716 / def 1.712 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Dordrecht xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Dordrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 70% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 11% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NAC Breda and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Dordrecht in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 1.02x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.71x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.72x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
70%
1.42
18%
5.46
11%
8.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.95
0.76
Dordrecht xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
8.75
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
11%
8.99
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
1%
78.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.76 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 10D 10L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 0.91 PPG from 35 outings (8W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
NAC Breda's home form reads 9W 7D 1L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.65 points per game from 17 outings (3W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.34 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 63%.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 15W 10D 10L in their last 35 games (1.57 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 8W 8D 19L in their last 35 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Dordrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 2.00 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.65 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-3 on 22 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Dordrecht have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when NAC Breda 1-4 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for NAC Breda and 94% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of NAC Breda's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of NAC Breda's matches and 94% of Dordrecht's.
Do NAC Breda and Dordrecht tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 2.20 xG and Dordrecht 0.76 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Dordrecht outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.02 / defence 0.73 against Dordrecht attack 0.72 / defence 1.71, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 70% | Draw 18% | Dordrecht 11%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 51%, Dordrecht 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Dordrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.