NAC Breda 1-2 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees ADO Den Haag travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, NAC Breda have posted 5W 2D 3L at Rat Verlegh Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, ADO Den Haag have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.10 (ADO Den Haag). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, ADO Den Haag in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for NAC Breda, 3 for ADO Den Haag and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–2 with ADO Den Haag winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
ADO Den Haag trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 54% versus ADO Den Haag 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 58% | ADO Den Haag 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.60 xG and ADO Den Haag 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.907 / defence 0.832 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.856 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.363. Data: 48 NAC Breda games / 48 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 52% | Draw 25% | ADO Den Haag 23%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | ADO Den Haag 4.35. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: NAC Breda 60% | ADO Den Haag 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 52% | Draw 25% | ADO Den Haag 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG NAC Breda 1.60 / ADO Den Haag 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.907 / def 0.832 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.856 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.97
ADO Den Haag xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
NAC Breda 1 - 2 ADO Den Haag.
Where is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag part of?
NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 52% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 3W.
What form are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.91x the league average against ADO Den Haag's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.00
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.57
0.97
ADO Den Haag xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
5%
21.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.97 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 20W 13D 17L from 50 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 12L across 50 games — 1.84 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.46 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 13W 8D 4L from 25 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
ADO Den Haag's away record stands at 12W 5D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.90 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ADO Den Haag in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 20W 13D 17L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 27W 11D 12L in their last 50 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or ADO Den Haag away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.88 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.64 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
6
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, ADO Den Haag have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when NAC Breda 2-2 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag?
ADO Den Haag have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 52%, ADO Den Haag 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (NAC Breda) and 60% (ADO Den Haag). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play ADO Den Haag?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 56% of ADO Den Haag's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of NAC Breda's matches and 60% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do NAC Breda and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as ADO Den Haag defy the odds to beat NAC Breda 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ADO Den Haag beat NAC Breda 1-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.60 xG and ADO Den Haag 0.97 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. ADO Den Haag outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.91 / defence 0.83 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 52% | Draw 25% | ADO Den Haag 23%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a ADO Den Haag win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 58%, ADO Den Haag 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.46 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the ADO Den Haag win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.