MVV 0-5 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates VVV Venlo at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
MVV and VVV Venlo meet at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 4 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
MVV have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Geusselt, MVV have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — MVV are significantly better at De Geusselt than their overall form suggests.
VVV Venlo (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VVV Venlo's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, VVV Venlo are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for MVV, 1 for VVV Venlo and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with VVV Venlo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — MVV 46% versus VVV Venlo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 50% | VVV Venlo 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.03 xG and VVV Venlo 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.769 / defence 1.116 | VVV Venlo attack 0.688 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.406. MVV's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 MVV games / 24 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 34% | Draw 30% | VVV Venlo 36%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | VVV Venlo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VVV Venlo at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VVV Venlo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: MVV 50% | VVV Venlo 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 34% | Draw 30% | VVV Venlo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG MVV 1.03 / VVV Venlo 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.769 / def 1.116 | VVV Venlo attack 0.688 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: VVV Venlo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.08
VVV Venlo xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs VVV Venlo kick off?
MVV vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs VVV Venlo?
MVV 0 - 5 VVV Venlo.
Where is MVV vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs VVV Venlo part of?
MVV vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 34% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VVV Venlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both MVV and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and VVV Venlo?
Record (1 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 0 | VVV Venlo 1W.
What form are MVV and VVV Venlo in?
MVV (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
MVV's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.69x) against MVV's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VVV Venlo Win
34%
2.96
30%
3.35
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
MVV xG
Total xG
2.11
1.08
VVV Venlo xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
13%
7.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are MVV and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for MVV and 1.08 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs VVV Venlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
MVV come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 2D 15L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (9W 2D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for MVV against 1.21 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
MVV's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 0.91 points per game from 11 outings (3W 1D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
MVV are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.25 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 7W 2D 15L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 9W 2D 13L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or VVV Venlo away?
MVV's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.27 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VVV Venlo won 0-5 on 4 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
1
Draws
5
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when MVV 2-1 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between MVV and VVV Venlo?
VVV Venlo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
MVV see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 54%, VVV Venlo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (MVV) and 54% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: MVV have failed to score in 27% of games; VVV Venlo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of MVV's recent matches and 46% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is MVV vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of MVV's recent games and 54% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do MVV and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VVV Venlo run riot with a 0-5 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat MVV 0-5 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.03 xG and VVV Venlo 1.08 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. MVV fell 1.0 short of their projected output. VVV Venlo outscored their 1.08 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.77 / defence 1.12 against VVV Venlo attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 34% | Draw 30% | VVV Venlo 36%, with VVV Venlo to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 50%, VVV Venlo 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 0.96 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.