Jong Utrecht 0-3 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Vitesse (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong Utrecht face Vitesse.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Vitesse in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Monday 13 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadion Galgenwaard, Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitesse away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Vitesse are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Vitesse hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Vitesse winning.
It is worth noting that Vitesse have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 60% and Vitesse 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 58% | Vitesse 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.55 xG and Vitesse 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.138 / defence 1.112 | Vitesse attack 1.053 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.469. Data: 72 Jong Utrecht games / 73 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 35% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 42%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Vitesse 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 90% | Vitesse 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 13 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 35% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.55 / Vitesse 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.138 / def 1.112 | Vitesse attack 1.053 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Vitesse xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 13 April 2026 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 3 Vitesse.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 35% chance of winning, Vitesse a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Vitesse?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Vitesse 3W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Vitesse in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Vitesse (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 1.14x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (1.05x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
35%
2.86
23%
4.34
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.27
1.72
Vitesse xG
2.86
35%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.00
9%
11.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.72 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 14W 20D 38L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Vitesse's form line: 25W 21D 26L from 72 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Vitesse are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.14 PPG from 36 outings (10W 11D 15L).
On the road, Vitesse have gone 11W 11D 14L from 36 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.56 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse in 61%.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Vitesse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 20D 38L in their last 72 games (0.86 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 25W 21D 26L in their last 72 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.14 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Vitesse go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vitesse won 0-3 on 13 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
5
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Vitesse?
From 5 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Vitesse have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-3 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 64%, Vitesse 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Jong Utrecht and 64% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 28% of games; Vitesse in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Jong Utrecht's games and 56% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 64% of Vitesse's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Vitesse tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Jong Utrecht 0-3 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.55 xG and Vitesse 1.72 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Vitesse outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.14 / defence 1.11 against Vitesse attack 1.05 / defence 0.84, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 35% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 42%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 58%, Vitesse 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vitesse's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.