Jong Utrecht 6-1 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Jong Ajax at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong Ajax — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong Utrecht at 1.10 PPG versus Jong Ajax's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Ajax in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Jong Utrecht have won 4, Jong Ajax 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Jong Utrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Jong Ajax in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 64% and Jong Ajax 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 64% | Jong Ajax 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.32 xG and Jong Ajax 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.750 / defence 1.220 | Jong Ajax attack 0.806 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.865 / away 1.699. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.32 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Jong Utrecht games / 45 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 30% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 46%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Ajax 2.17. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 14 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 30% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.32 / Jong Ajax 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.750 / def 1.220 | Jong Ajax attack 0.806 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.865 / away 1.699 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Jong Ajax xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 September 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Jong Utrecht 6 - 1 Jong Ajax.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 30% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax?
Record (9 meetings): Jong Utrecht 4W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 4W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
30%
3.30
24%
4.17
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.99
1.67
Jong Ajax xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
6%
17.52
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.67 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 11D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 0.93 PPG from 45 outings (11W 9D 25L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 1.11 PPG, Jong Ajax on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 8W 6D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 1.38 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
Jong Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 11W 9D 25L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Jong Ajax away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.36 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Utrecht go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2026, when Jong Utrecht won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
4
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 5, Jong Ajax have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Jong Utrecht 6-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax?
Jong Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong Utrecht at 68%, Jong Ajax at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Jong Utrecht and 64% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jong Utrecht's games and 68% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 64% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Utrecht run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat Jong Ajax 6-1 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.32 xG and Jong Ajax 1.67 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.75 / defence 1.22 against Jong Ajax attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 30% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 46%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Jong Utrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 64%, Jong Ajax 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 1.11 PPG, Jong Ajax 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.