Jong Utrecht 0-6 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven meet at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this season: 3W 0D 3L from 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.60 for FC Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 62% versus FC Eindhoven 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 69% | FC Eindhoven 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.43 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.857 / defence 1.051 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.855 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.447. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Jong Utrecht games / 13 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | FC Eindhoven 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 50% | FC Eindhoven 43%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.43 / FC Eindhoven 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.857 / def 1.051 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.855 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC Eindhoven xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 6 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 40% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.85x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.90
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.73
1.30
FC Eindhoven xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.30 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 5W 3D 5L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 6W 2D 5L from 13 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.54 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Eindhoven's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.54 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Utrecht have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.50 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 0-6 on 5 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
8
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 50%, FC Eindhoven 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jong Utrecht) and 50% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Eindhoven in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 50% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Eindhoven run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Jong Utrecht 0-6 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.43 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.30 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven outscored their 1.30 projection by 4.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 40% | Draw 26% | FC Eindhoven 34%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Eindhoven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 69%, FC Eindhoven 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 1.38 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.