Jong Utrecht 0-4 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Dordrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 1.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Jong Utrecht's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Dordrecht 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong Utrecht trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dordrecht trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 54% and Dordrecht 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Utrecht 64% | Dordrecht 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.30 xG and Dordrecht 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.654 / defence 1.395 | Dordrecht attack 0.832 / defence 1.734. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.503. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.734 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Jong Utrecht games / 22 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 28% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 47%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 2.13. Dordrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dordrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 40% | Dordrecht 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 28% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.30 / Dordrecht 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.654 / def 1.395 | Dordrecht attack 0.832 / def 1.734 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Dordrecht xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 4 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 28% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Utrecht's attack at 0.65x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
28%
3.61
25%
3.99
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.04
1.75
Dordrecht xG
3.61
28%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
5%
20.65
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.75 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 4D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 0.77 PPG from 22 outings (4W 5D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 1.00 PPG, Dordrecht on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 3W 0D 8L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.64 points per game from 11 outings (2W 1D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.23 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (0.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.82 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Utrecht go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2022, when Dordrecht won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 3, Dordrecht have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 36%, Dordrecht 91% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Jong Utrecht and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 54% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 36% of Jong Utrecht's games and 91% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Jong Utrecht 0-4 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.30 xG and Dordrecht 1.75 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Dordrecht outscored their 1.75 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.65 / defence 1.40 against Dordrecht attack 0.83 / defence 1.73, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 28% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 47%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 64%, Dordrecht 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 1.00 PPG, Dordrecht 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.