Jong Utrecht 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 45%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host De Graafschap at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie (matchday 16). Kick-off is Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, De Graafschap stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
De Graafschap's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. De Graafschap are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Jong Utrecht have won 0, De Graafschap 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Jan 2023, ended Jong Utrecht 1–1 De Graafschap — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 45% versus De Graafschap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 43% | De Graafschap 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jong Utrecht surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while De Graafschap have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.918 / defence 0.810 | De Graafschap attack 1.068 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.384. Data: built from Jong Utrecht's last 51 games and De Graafschap's last 52.
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 45% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 28%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.24 | Draw 3.61 | De Graafschap 3.63. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong Utrecht's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong Utrecht 50% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 16 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 45% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Jong Utrecht 1.58 / De Graafschap 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.918 / def 0.810 | De Graafschap attack 1.068 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.20
De Graafschap xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Jong Utrecht 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 45% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong Utrecht's last 51 games and De Graafschap's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.61
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.77
1.20
De Graafschap xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.20 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 10W 11D 30L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 23W 9D 19L from 51 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 24 home games (8W 7D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Jong Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 5D 10L from their last 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.59 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong Utrecht (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong Utrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 10W 11D 30L in their last 51 games (0.80 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 23W 9D 19L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.29 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
De Graafschap have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
4
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong Utrecht have won 1, De Graafschap have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 38%, De Graafschap 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Jong Utrecht) and 75% (De Graafschap).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 67% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 75% of De Graafschap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 79% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Utrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat De Graafschap 2-0 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.58 xG and De Graafschap 1.20 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against De Graafschap attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 45% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 28%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 43%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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