Jong PSV U21 5-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to PSV Campus De Herdgang to face Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Monday 10 January 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Jong PSV U21 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong PSV U21 at PSV Campus De Herdgang this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Almere City FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 0.80 for Almere City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Almere City FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong PSV U21 lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 8.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 5–3 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 60% and Almere City FC 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 60% | Almere City FC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.76 xG and Almere City FC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.036 / defence 1.129 | Almere City FC attack 0.894 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.548. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Jong PSV U21 games / 20 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 43% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Almere City FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 60% | Almere City FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 10 Jan 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 43% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.76 / Almere City FC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.036 / def 1.129 | Almere City FC attack 0.894 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.548 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Almere City FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 10 January 2022 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Jong PSV U21 5 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 43% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 1W | Draws 0 | Almere City FC 0W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.04) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.89x) against Jong PSV U21's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
43%
2.34
23%
4.36
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.32
1.56
Almere City FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
9%
11.19
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.9 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.56 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 6W 5D 9L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC's form line: 4W 5D 11L from 20 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Jong PSV U21 against 0.85 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.65 scored and 2.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 75%.
Last 20 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 4W 5D 11L in their last 20 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Almere City FC away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.40 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong PSV U21 won 5-1 on 10 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong PSV U21 have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
2
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 4, Almere City FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Jong PSV U21 2-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Jong PSV U21, 80% for Almere City FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Jong PSV U21 and 70% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jong PSV U21's games and 80% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 70% of Almere City FC's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong PSV U21 run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Almere City FC 5-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.76 xG and Almere City FC 1.56 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.04 / defence 1.13 against Almere City FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.49, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 43% | Draw 23% | Almere City FC 34%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 60%, Almere City FC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Almere City FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 1.15 PPG, Almere City FC 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.