Jong AZ 0-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong AZ face Willem II.

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Analysis & Preview

Willem II travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Jong AZ have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jong AZ at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Willem II stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Willem II's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong AZ 1.50 PPG, Willem II 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Jong AZ, 1 for Willem II and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Mar 2023, ended Jong AZ 2–2 Willem II — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 60% and Willem II 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 56% | Willem II 62%). Note also that Willem II surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Jong AZ recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.35 xG and Willem II 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.114 / defence 0.902 | Willem II attack 0.791 / defence 0.725. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.295. Willem II bring a tight defence (rating 0.725, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Jong AZ's projected output down. Willem II's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Jong AZ's last 45 games and Willem II's last 44.

Result probabilities: Jong AZ 47% | Draw 28% | Willem II 26%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.14 | Draw 3.61 | Willem II 3.90. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jong AZ 50% (last 10 home games) | Willem II 60% (last 10 away games).

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