Jong AZ 4-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as Jong AZ welcome NAC Breda to AFAS Trainingscomplex. Kick-off is set for Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's home record at AFAS Trainingscomplex: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.60 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong AZ register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 0, NAC Breda 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 45% versus NAC Breda 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 47% | NAC Breda 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.98 xG and NAC Breda 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.180 / defence 1.085 | NAC Breda attack 1.051 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.400. Data: 47 Jong AZ games / 47 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 46% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 3.33. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | NAC Breda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 46% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Jong AZ 1.98 / NAC Breda 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.180 / def 1.085 | NAC Breda attack 1.051 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.60
NAC Breda xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs NAC Breda kick off?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Jong AZ 4 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda part of?
Jong AZ vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 46% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Jong AZ and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 0 | NAC Breda 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and NAC Breda in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.18x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.21
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.57
1.60
NAC Breda xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
14%
7.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.76
4%
23.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.60 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Jong AZ have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 7D 24L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda's form line: 20W 11D 16L from 47 games, 1.51 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.17 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong AZ have posted 1.43 PPG from 23 outings (10W 3D 10L).
On the road, NAC Breda have gone 7W 4D 12L from 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.51 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 7D 24L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or NAC Breda away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.43 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
0
Draws
5
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, NAC Breda have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2024, when Jong AZ 2-3 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and NAC Breda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 48%, NAC Breda 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Jong AZ) and 61% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 39% of games; NAC Breda in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Jong AZ's recent matches and 56% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong AZ vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Jong AZ's recent games and 61% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 4-0 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat NAC Breda 4-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.98 xG and NAC Breda 1.60 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.18 / defence 1.08 against NAC Breda attack 1.05 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 46% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 30%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 47%, NAC Breda 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
NAC Breda's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.17 PPG, NAC Breda 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.