Jong Ajax 1-2 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and Den Bosch meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 30 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong Ajax have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Sportpark De Toekomst, Jong Ajax have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Den Bosch (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.40 for Den Bosch. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Jong Ajax, 2 for Den Bosch and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Jong Ajax — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 61% versus Den Bosch 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 66% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.30 xG and Den Bosch 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.824 / defence 0.909 | Den Bosch attack 0.817 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.289. Data: 41 Jong Ajax games / 41 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 41% | Draw 35% | Den Bosch 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Den Bosch 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 40% | Den Bosch 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 41% | Draw 35% | Den Bosch 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Jong Ajax 1.30 / Den Bosch 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.824 / def 0.909 | Den Bosch attack 0.817 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Den Bosch xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Jong Ajax 1 - 2 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 41% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Jong Ajax and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
Record (6 meetings): Jong Ajax 2W | Draws 2 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.82x) against Jong Ajax's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
41%
2.43
35%
2.89
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.25
0.96
Den Bosch xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
7%
15.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 0.96 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 11W 12D 18L from 41 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 22L across 41 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Jong Ajax against 0.90 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 8W 6D 6L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 5W 3D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.10 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 11W 12D 18L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 9W 10D 22L in their last 41 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.50 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Den Bosch have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 45%, Den Bosch 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Jong Ajax) and 45% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 30% of games; Den Bosch in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 35% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 45% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Jong Ajax 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Jong Ajax 1-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.30 xG and Den Bosch 0.96 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.82 / defence 0.91 against Den Bosch attack 0.82 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 41% | Draw 35% | Den Bosch 24%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 66%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.10 PPG, Den Bosch 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Den Bosch win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.