Helmond Sport 2-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 49%, yet in-form Dordrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Helmond Sport welcome Dordrecht to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Helmond Sport at GS Staalwerken Stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Dordrecht — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Helmond Sport have won 1, Dordrecht 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 50% versus Dordrecht 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 61% | Dordrecht 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.64 xG and Dordrecht 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.888 / defence 1.050 | Dordrecht attack 0.793 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.337. Data: 44 Helmond Sport games / 44 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 25%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 4.00. Helmond Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 50% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Helmond Sport 1.64 / Dordrecht 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.888 / def 1.050 | Dordrecht attack 0.793 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Dordrecht xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Helmond Sport 2 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht part of?
Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 49% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Helmond Sport and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Helmond Sport 1W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.89) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.94
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.75
1.11
Dordrecht xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
5%
20.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.11 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helmond Sport come into this having played 44 games, going 9W 7D 28L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.05 PPG from 44 outings (12W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 0.77 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Helmond Sport's home form reads 5W 4D 13L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (4W 4D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.34 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 9W 7D 28L in their last 44 games (0.77 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 12W 10D 22L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Dordrecht away?
Helmond Sport's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 0.86 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dordrecht have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2024, when Dordrecht won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
6
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 2, Dordrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Dordrecht 3-0 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 54%, Dordrecht 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Helmond Sport and 82% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Helmond Sport's games and 73% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Helmond Sport's matches and 82% of Dordrecht's.
Do Helmond Sport and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helmond Sport edge out Dordrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat Dordrecht 2-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.64 xG and Dordrecht 1.11 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.89 / defence 1.05 against Dordrecht attack 0.79 / defence 1.10, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 25%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 61%, Dordrecht 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 0.77 PPG, Dordrecht 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.