Helmond Sport 1-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Den Bosch at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 38 as Helmond Sport welcome Den Bosch to SolarUnie Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Helmond Sport at SolarUnie Stadion this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Den Bosch's 1.90 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Helmond Sport, 1 for Den Bosch and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 51% versus Den Bosch 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 65% | Den Bosch 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.28 xG and Den Bosch 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.778 / defence 1.513 | Den Bosch attack 0.637 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.452. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Helmond Sport's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Helmond Sport games / 37 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 34% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 40%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Den Bosch 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 70% | Den Bosch 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 34% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Helmond Sport 1.28 / Den Bosch 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.778 / def 1.513 | Den Bosch attack 0.637 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Den Bosch xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Helmond Sport 1 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch part of?
Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 34% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Helmond Sport and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): Helmond Sport 0W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.78x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
34%
2.92
26%
3.86
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.68
1.40
Den Bosch xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.40 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 8W 6D 23L from 37 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 14W 4D 19L across 37 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Den Bosch by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helmond Sport heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 4W 3D 11L from 18 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 4W 3D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
The Goals Picture
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.11 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 8W 6D 23L in their last 37 games (0.81 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 14W 4D 19L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Den Bosch away?
Helmond Sport's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 0.83 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Helmond Sport
3
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 4, Den Bosch have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Helmond Sport 2-0 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Den Bosch?
Helmond Sport have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 56%, Den Bosch 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Helmond Sport and 56% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport have failed to score in 28% of games; Den Bosch in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 44% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Helmond Sport's matches and 56% of Den Bosch's.
Do Helmond Sport and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 38, as Helmond Sport and Den Bosch drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.28 xG and Den Bosch 1.40 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.78 / defence 1.51 against Den Bosch attack 0.64 / defence 1.30, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 34% | Draw 26% | Den Bosch 40%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 65%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Den Bosch arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.