Groningen 2-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to Euroborg to face Groningen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 22 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Groningen (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Euroborg this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Groningen. A 0.90 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.60 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Groningen, 1 for Jong Utrecht and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus Jong Utrecht 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | Jong Utrecht 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 2.13 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.958 / defence 0.864 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.663 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.402. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Groningen games / 57 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 67% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 12%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.49 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Utrecht 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 40% | Jong Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 22 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 67% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 50% | xG Groningen 2.13 / Jong Utrecht 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.958 / def 0.864 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.663 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Groningen (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Jong Utrecht xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Groningen vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 December 2023 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Groningen 2 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Groningen vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Groningen vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 67% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 12% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Groningen and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Groningen and Jong Utrecht in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Groningen's attack at 0.96x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.66x) against Groningen's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
67%
1.50
21%
4.66
12%
8.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.93
0.80
Jong Utrecht xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
8.47
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
12%
8.39
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
1%
71.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Groningen and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Groningen and 0.80 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Groningen's recent record stands at 12W 11D 30L from 53 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 30L across 53 games — 0.85 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for Groningen against 0.85 for Jong Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 8W 6D 13L from 27 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 4D 21L across 27 trips, a 0.37 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Utrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.94 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 12W 11D 30L in their last 53 games (0.89 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 11W 12D 30L in their last 53 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Groningen's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.11 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Groningen
0
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Jong Utrecht?
From 2 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2023, when Groningen 2-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 48%, Jong Utrecht 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Groningen) and 59% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 37% of games; Jong Utrecht in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Groningen's recent matches and 52% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Groningen's matches and 59% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Groningen and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Groningen edge out Jong Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 2.13 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.80 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.66 / defence 1.42, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 67% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 12%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 58%, Jong Utrecht 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 0.89 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.