FC Volendam 4-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 13 as FC Volendam welcome Dordrecht to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 home games — 2.17 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Dordrecht trading profile (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 67% and Dordrecht 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 75% | Dordrecht 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.99 xG and Dordrecht 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.143 / defence 1.122 | Dordrecht attack 0.739 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.438. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 FC Volendam games / 12 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 56% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 4.55. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 67% | Dordrecht 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 56% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Volendam 1.99 / Dordrecht 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.143 / def 1.122 | Dordrecht attack 0.739 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Dordrecht xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC Volendam vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
FC Volendam 4 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is FC Volendam vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Dordrecht part of?
FC Volendam vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 56% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Volendam and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Dordrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Dordrecht in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.14x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.63
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.18
1.19
Dordrecht xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
14%
7.33
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
3%
32.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.19 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 8W 3D 1L from 12 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 7L across 12 games — 0.58 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 1.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.08 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 8W 3D 1L in their last 12 games (2.25 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Dordrecht away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.17 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.67 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and Dordrecht runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2025, when Dordrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
0
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Dordrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Dordrecht have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Dordrecht 4-1 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 67%, Dordrecht at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC Volendam and 100% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Volendam's games and 83% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC Volendam's matches and 100% of Dordrecht's.
Do FC Volendam and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Dordrecht 4-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.99 xG and Dordrecht 1.19 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.14 / defence 1.12 against Dordrecht attack 0.74 / defence 1.37, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 56% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 22%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 75%, Dordrecht 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.58. Form held, and they took the win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.