FC OSS vs Waalwijk – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates FC OSS at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Frans Heesen Stadion plays host to FC OSS versus Waalwijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 6 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

FC OSS have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Waalwijk (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for FC OSS, 1.40 for Waalwijk — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC OSS register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, Waalwijk in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: FC OSS 0W, Waalwijk 1W, 1D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 0–2 with Waalwijk winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games).

Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 65% and Waalwijk 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 65% | Waalwijk 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.99 xG and Waalwijk 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.172 / defence 0.912 | Waalwijk attack 0.795 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 49 FC OSS games / 49 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC OSS 59% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 20%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | Waalwijk 5.00. The model has a clear lean to FC OSS (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 90% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.

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