FC OSS 1-4 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC OSS face Roda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Roda at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 12 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Roda have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Roda — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 1, Roda 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Roda in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 45% versus Roda 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 58% | Roda 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.02 xG and Roda 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.807 / defence 1.176 | Roda attack 1.126 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.341. Roda's defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 71 FC OSS games / 71 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 21% | Draw 25% | Roda 54%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Roda 1.85. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 50% | Roda 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 21% | Draw 25% | Roda 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG FC OSS 1.02 / Roda 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.807 / def 1.176 | Roda attack 1.126 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Roda (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Roda xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Roda kick off?
FC OSS vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 April 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Roda?
FC OSS 1 - 4 Roda.
Where is FC OSS vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Roda part of?
FC OSS vs Roda is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 21% chance of winning, Roda a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC OSS and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
Record (5 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 1 | Roda 3W.
What form are FC OSS and Roda in?
FC OSS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Roda (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.81x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
21%
4.82
25%
3.99
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.80
1.78
Roda xG
4.82
21%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
4%
28.49
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.78 for Roda, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS's recent record stands at 20W 9D 42L from 71 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 23L across 71 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 13W 3D 19L from 35 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 11W 10D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.55 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Roda in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 20W 9D 42L in their last 71 games (0.97 PPG), while Roda have gone 31W 17D 23L in their last 71 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.20 PPG; Roda away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
2
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Roda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 49%, Roda 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (FC OSS) and 46% (Roda).
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 29% of games; Roda in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of FC OSS's recent matches and 51% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of FC OSS's recent games and 46% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and Roda tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Roda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat FC OSS 1-4 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.02 xG and Roda 1.78 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.81 / defence 1.18 against Roda attack 1.13 / defence 0.78, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 21% | Draw 25% | Roda 54%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 58%, Roda 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.