FC OSS vs Helmond Sport – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC OSS at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs Helmond Sport encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as FC OSS welcome Helmond Sport to Frans Heesen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS at Frans Heesen Stadion this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Helmond Sport have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Helmond Sport's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, FC OSS have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 3, Helmond Sport 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC OSS trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
Helmond Sport trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 64% and Helmond Sport 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 62% | Helmond Sport 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.88 xG and Helmond Sport 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.957 / defence 1.016 | Helmond Sport attack 0.761 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 FC OSS games / 42 Helmond Sport games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 51% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 27%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Helmond Sport 3.70. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | Helmond Sport 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 51% | Draw 22% | Helmond Sport 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG FC OSS 1.88 / Helmond Sport 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.957 / def 1.016 | Helmond Sport attack 0.761 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Helmond Sport xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Helmond Sport kick off?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
Where is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport part of?
FC OSS vs Helmond Sport is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 51% chance of winning, Helmond Sport a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC OSS and Helmond Sport will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Helmond Sport have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
Record (10 meetings): FC OSS 3W | Draws 5 | Helmond Sport 2W.
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in?
FC OSS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Helmond Sport (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.96x the league average against Helmond Sport's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helmond Sport's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.44
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.19
1.31
Helmond Sport xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.44
22%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
4%
24.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Helmond Sport expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.31 for Helmond Sport, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Helmond Sport?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, FC OSS have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 11D 19L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Helmond Sport's form line: 10W 11D 21L from 42 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Helmond Sport, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.12 PPG, Helmond Sport on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC OSS have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (7W 3D 11L).
On the road, Helmond Sport have gone 2W 4D 15L from 21 away games — 0.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Helmond Sport's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Helmond Sport are on 1.12 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Helmond Sport
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Helmond Sport in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Helmond Sport have gone 10W 11D 21L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Helmond Sport away?
FC OSS's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.14 PPG; Helmond Sport away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Helmond Sport runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Helmond Sport specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC OSS
5
Draws
2
Helmond Sport
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 3, Helmond Sport have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Helmond Sport last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Helmond Sport?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 71%, Helmond Sport 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for FC OSS and 48% for Helmond Sport. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Helmond Sport away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Helmond Sport?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC OSS's games and 43% of Helmond Sport's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Helmond Sport usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of FC OSS's matches and 48% of Helmond Sport's.
Do FC OSS and Helmond Sport tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Helmond Sport in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.