FC OSS vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees FC Volendam travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 5W 0D 5L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
FC OSS are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour FC Volendam, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for FC OSS.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 0–3 with FC Volendam winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Volendam have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games).
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 68% and FC Volendam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 62% | FC Volendam 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 2.01 xG and FC Volendam 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.957 / defence 1.016 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 42 FC OSS games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 53% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 25%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | FC Volendam 4.00. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
FC Volendam lead the H2H ledger, but FC OSS carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, FC OSS are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | FC Volendam 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 53% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG FC OSS 2.01 / FC Volendam 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.957 / def 1.016 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Volendam xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs FC Volendam kick off?
FC OSS vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
Where is FC OSS vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs FC Volendam part of?
FC OSS vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 53% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC OSS and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Volendam?
Record (5 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 4W.
What form are FC OSS and FC Volendam in?
FC OSS (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC OSS's attack rating (0.96) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
53%
1.89
22%
4.64
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.35
1.34
FC Volendam xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
3%
29.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are FC OSS and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.34 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS's recent record stands at 11W 11D 18L from 40 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 21L across 40 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 1.10 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 6W 3D 11L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Volendam's away record stands at 3W 3D 14L across 20 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.23 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 games (1.10 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or FC Volendam away?
FC OSS's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.05 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and FC Volendam runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC OSS
0
Draws
4
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 1, FC Volendam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when FC Volendam 3-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 75%, FC Volendam 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for FC OSS and 55% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC OSS's games and 45% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of FC OSS's matches and 55% of FC Volendam's.
Do FC OSS and FC Volendam tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.