FC OSS 4-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC OSS at 39%, yet in-form Emmen provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC OSS vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Emmen travel to Frans Heesen Stadion to take on FC OSS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Emmen — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC OSS register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Emmen, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for FC OSS.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Emmen in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 49% versus Emmen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 46% | Emmen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.65 xG and Emmen 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.849 / defence 1.175 | Emmen attack 0.885 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.549. Data: 59 FC OSS games / 59 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 23% | Emmen 38%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Emmen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Emmen (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 70% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 23% | Emmen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG FC OSS 1.65 / Emmen 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.849 / def 1.175 | Emmen attack 0.885 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.549 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Emmen xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Emmen kick off?
FC OSS vs Emmen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Emmen?
FC OSS 4 - 0 Emmen.
Where is FC OSS vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Emmen part of?
FC OSS vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 39% chance of winning, Emmen a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC OSS and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Emmen?
Record (7 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 1 | Emmen 5W.
What form are FC OSS and Emmen in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Emmen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
39%
2.56
23%
4.28
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.26
1.61
Emmen xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.61 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS come into this having played 59 games, going 12W 22D 25L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.42 PPG from 59 outings (25W 9D 25L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC OSS's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.37 points per game from 30 outings (13W 2D 15L).
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.61 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 12W 22D 25L in their last 59 games (0.98 PPG), while Emmen have gone 25W 9D 25L in their last 59 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.23 PPG; Emmen away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Emmen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC OSS
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when FC OSS 4-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 53%, Emmen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (FC OSS) and 60% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 30% of games; Emmen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of FC OSS's recent matches and 47% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC OSS's matches and 60% of Emmen's.
Do FC OSS and Emmen tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Emmen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC OSS run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Emmen 4-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.65 xG and Emmen 1.61 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Emmen attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 23% | Emmen 38%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 46%, Emmen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Emmen's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with FC OSS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.