FC Eindhoven 1-3 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Jong Ajax at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven at Jan Louwers Stadion this season: 4W 1D 0L from 5 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Eindhoven 1.60 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jong Ajax in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
FC Eindhoven trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong Ajax trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Eindhoven 46% and Jong Ajax 91% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 46% | Jong Ajax 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 2.08 xG and Jong Ajax 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.110 / defence 1.055 | Jong Ajax attack 0.985 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.347. Jong Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 FC Eindhoven games / 11 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 53% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 1.89 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Ajax 3.85. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Jong Ajax 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 53% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG FC Eindhoven 2.08 / Jong Ajax 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.110 / def 1.055 | Jong Ajax attack 0.985 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Jong Ajax xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 3 Jong Ajax.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 53% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 26% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Jong Ajax (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Eindhoven's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Jong Ajax's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Ajax's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
53%
1.88
21%
4.73
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.48
1.40
Jong Ajax xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
13%
8.00
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
3%
31.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.40 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 2D 4L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Ajax sit at 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.55 PPG, Jong Ajax on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — FC Eindhoven are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Ajax have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.18 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax in 91%.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 games (1.55 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 5W 1D 5L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Jong Ajax away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.60 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.40 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Jong Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jong Ajax in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Eindhoven go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Jong Ajax specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Eindhoven
4
Draws
2
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Eindhoven at 60%, Jong Ajax at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC Eindhoven and 80% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Eindhoven's games and 100% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 80% of Jong Ajax's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 2.08 xG and Jong Ajax 1.40 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Eindhoven fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against Jong Ajax attack 0.98 / defence 1.47, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 53% | Draw 21% | Jong Ajax 26%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 46%, Jong Ajax 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.55 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.