Emmen 1-0 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Oude Meerdijk plays host to Emmen versus VVV Venlo in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 29 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 2W 0D 3L across 5 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
VVV Venlo have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VVV Venlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, VVV Venlo have posted 1W 0D 4L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Emmen's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
VVV Venlo half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 50% versus VVV Venlo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 42% | VVV Venlo 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.67 xG and VVV Venlo 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.019 / defence 0.989 | VVV Venlo attack 0.646 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.438. VVV Venlo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Emmen games / 12 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 55% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 21%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | VVV Venlo 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 20% | VVV Venlo 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 55% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Emmen 1.67 / VVV Venlo 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.019 / def 0.989 | VVV Venlo attack 0.646 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Emmen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
0.92
VVV Venlo xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Emmen vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 October 2021 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs VVV Venlo?
Emmen 1 - 0 VVV Venlo.
Where is Emmen vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs VVV Venlo part of?
Emmen vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 55% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Emmen and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and VVV Venlo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and VVV Venlo in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. VVV Venlo (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Emmen's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against VVV Venlo's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.65x) against Emmen's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.12
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.59
0.92
VVV Venlo xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
4%
25.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.5 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Emmen and 0.92 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 1D 4L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (5W 1D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for VVV Venlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Emmen's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VVV Venlo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
VVV Venlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 7W 1D 4L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or VVV Venlo away?
Emmen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.20 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VVV Venlo won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
2
Draws
2
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and VVV Venlo?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, VVV Venlo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Emmen 2-2 VVV Venlo.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and VVV Venlo?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 20%, VVV Venlo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Emmen) and 80% (VVV Venlo).
On the defensive side: Emmen have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play VVV Venlo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Emmen's recent matches and 60% of VVV Venlo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Emmen's recent games and 80% of VVV Venlo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out VVV Venlo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat VVV Venlo 1-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 13, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.67 xG and VVV Venlo 0.92 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. VVV Venlo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.02 / defence 0.99 against VVV Venlo attack 0.65 / defence 1.29, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 55% | Draw 24% | VVV Venlo 21%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 42%, VVV Venlo 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.