Emmen 3-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host FC OSS at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 7W 0D 3L at De Oude Meerdijk — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC OSS have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Emmen have won 1, FC OSS 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
FC OSS in-play tendencies (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 35% versus FC OSS 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 35% | FC OSS 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.63 xG and FC OSS 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.114 / defence 0.752 | FC OSS attack 0.785 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.406. FC OSS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Emmen's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Emmen games / 24 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 56% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 19%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | FC OSS 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 20% | FC OSS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 56% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Emmen 1.63 / FC OSS 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.114 / def 0.752 | FC OSS attack 0.785 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Emmen (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
0.83
FC OSS xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC OSS kick off?
Emmen vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Emmen 3 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Emmen vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC OSS part of?
Emmen vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 56% chance of winning, FC OSS a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Emmen and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
Record (1 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 0 | FC OSS 0W.
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in?
Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emmen's attack rating (1.11) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
56%
1.77
25%
4.06
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.46
0.83
FC OSS xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
4%
27.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Emmen and 0.83 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Emmen have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 15W 3D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC OSS's form line: 6W 6D 11L from 23 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (7W 0D 3L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.22 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS in 61%.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 15W 3D 5L in their last 23 games (2.09 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC OSS away?
Emmen's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.10 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Emmen or FC OSS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, FC OSS in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Emmen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when FC OSS 4-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC OSS?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 20%, FC OSS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Emmen) and 60% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Emmen have failed to score in 30% of games; FC OSS in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Emmen's recent matches and 60% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Emmen's recent games and 60% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and FC OSS tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat FC OSS 3-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.63 xG and FC OSS 0.83 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.11 / defence 0.75 against FC OSS attack 0.79 / defence 1.29, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 56% | Draw 25% | FC OSS 19%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 35%, FC OSS 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
FC OSS's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.