Emmen 2-0 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs FC OSS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host FC OSS at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie (matchday 10). Kick-off is Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Emmen stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Emmen have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, FC OSS have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
FC OSS's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Emmen have won 3, FC OSS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Mar 2024, ended Emmen 0–1 FC OSS — a FC OSS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FC OSS in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 54% versus FC OSS 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 60% | FC OSS 50%). Note also that FC OSS surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Emmen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.50 xG and FC OSS 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.925 / defence 1.145 | FC OSS attack 0.739 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.476. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Data: built from Emmen's last 48 games and FC OSS's last 48.
Result probabilities: Emmen 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 29%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.47 | Draw 3.29 | FC OSS 3.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Emmen's last 10 home games and FC OSS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Emmen 70% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 10 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Emmen 1.50 / FC OSS 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.925 / def 1.145 | FC OSS attack 0.739 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Emmen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC OSS xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Emmen vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Emmen vs FC OSS kick off?
Emmen vs FC OSS kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Emmen 2 - 0 FC OSS.
Where is Emmen vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC OSS part of?
Emmen vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 10) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 40% chance of winning, FC OSS a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Emmen and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Emmen vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.93) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Emmen's last 48 games and FC OSS's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.29
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.74
1.25
FC OSS xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Emmen vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Emmen and 1.25 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 21W 9D 18L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 12W 7D 29L from 48 games, 0.90 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Emmen are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 5D 9L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 3W 4D 16L from their last 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 0.83 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
Emmen (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Emmen
Blended
FC OSS
Blended
❓ Emmen vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Emmen and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 21W 9D 18L in their last 48 games (1.50 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 12W 7D 29L in their last 48 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC OSS away?
Emmen's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.39 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2025, when Emmen won FC OSS 0-4 Emmen.
Emmen's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Emmen
1
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Emmen vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC OSS?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Emmen have won 6, FC OSS have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Emmen 1-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and FC OSS?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 52%, FC OSS 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Emmen) and 48% (FC OSS).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; FC OSS in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Emmen vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Emmen and FC OSS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Emmen's recent matches and 35% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Emmen and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Emmen's recent games and 48% of FC OSS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Emmen's recent matches and 56% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat FC OSS 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.50 xG and FC OSS 1.25 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against FC OSS attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 40% | Draw 30% | FC OSS 29%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, FC OSS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
FC OSS's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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