Emmen 1-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Emmen host Dordrecht at De Oude Meerdijk in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Emmen) versus 1.70 (Dordrecht). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Emmen have won 3, Dordrecht 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Dordrecht trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 52% versus Dordrecht 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 60% | Dordrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.71 xG and Dordrecht 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.003 / defence 0.992 | Dordrecht attack 1.153 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.358. Data: 38 Emmen games / 38 Dordrecht games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Emmen 40% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 33%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Dordrecht 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 40% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Emmen 1.71 / Dordrecht 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.003 / def 0.992 | Dordrecht attack 1.153 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Emmen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Dordrecht xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Dordrecht kick off?
Emmen vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 August 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Emmen 1 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Emmen vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Dordrecht part of?
Emmen vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 40% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Emmen and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Dordrecht?
Record (6 meetings): Emmen 3W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are Emmen and Dordrecht in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Emmen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Emmen's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
40%
2.51
27%
3.73
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.26
1.55
Dordrecht xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
6%
16.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Emmen and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Emmen and 1.55 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen's recent record stands at 18W 6D 16L from 40 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. Emmen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 6L across 40 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five. Dordrecht haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.50 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 10W 2D 8L from 20 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 7W 9D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.90 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Pre-Season
Dordrecht
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 18W 6D 16L in their last 40 games (1.50 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 18W 16D 6L in their last 40 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Dordrecht away?
Emmen's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.60 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Emmen or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Dordrecht runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2025, when Dordrecht won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Emmen
1
Draws
5
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Dordrecht have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Dordrecht 1-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 45%, Dordrecht 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Emmen) and 60% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Emmen's games and 75% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Emmen's matches and 60% of Dordrecht's.
Do Emmen and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Emmen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Emmen 1-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.71 xG and Dordrecht 1.55 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Dordrecht attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 40% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 33%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Dordrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.50 PPG, Dordrecht 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.