Dordrecht 3-4 Jong Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Matchoholic Stadion plays host to Dordrecht versus Jong Ajax in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 4 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Matchoholic Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.20 for Jong Ajax. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 65% and Jong Ajax 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 69% | Jong Ajax 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.64 xG and Jong Ajax 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.872 / defence 1.078 | Jong Ajax attack 0.937 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.333. Data: 51 Dordrecht games / 51 Jong Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 31%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Ajax 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Jong Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 44% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Dordrecht 1.64 / Jong Ajax 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.872 / def 1.078 | Jong Ajax attack 0.937 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Jong Ajax xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax kick off?
Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Dordrecht 3 - 4 Jong Ajax.
Where is Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax part of?
Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 44% chance of winning, Jong Ajax a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Dordrecht and Jong Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Ajax?
Record (2 meetings): Dordrecht 1W | Draws 1 | Jong Ajax 0W.
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Ajax in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.87x the league average against Jong Ajax's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Ajax's attack (0.94x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
44%
2.25
24%
4.16
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.99
1.35
Jong Ajax xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Jong Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.35 for Jong Ajax, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 14W 12D 25L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Ajax's form line: 22W 13D 16L from 51 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Jong Ajax are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dordrecht.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
On the road, Jong Ajax have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong Ajax's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dordrecht are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Jong Ajax are on 2.02 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Jong Ajax in 76%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Jong Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Jong Ajax in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 14W 12D 25L in their last 51 games (1.06 PPG), while Jong Ajax have gone 22W 13D 16L in their last 51 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Jong Ajax away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.32 PPG; Jong Ajax away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 4-0 on 20 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Ajax — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Dordrecht
3
Draws
3
Jong Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Jong Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 4, Jong Ajax have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Jong Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Dordrecht 0-1 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Jong Ajax?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 56%, Jong Ajax 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Dordrecht and 60% for Jong Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Jong Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Jong Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Dordrecht's games and 72% of Jong Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs Jong Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Dordrecht's matches and 60% of Jong Ajax's.
Do Dordrecht and Jong Ajax tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Jong Ajax in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jong Ajax defy the odds to beat Dordrecht 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Dordrecht 3-4 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.64 xG and Jong Ajax 1.35 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax outscored their 1.35 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.87 / defence 1.08 against Jong Ajax attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 44% | Draw 24% | Jong Ajax 31%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Jong Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 69%, Jong Ajax 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Ajax's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jong Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.