Dordrecht 3-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dordrecht vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 37 as Dordrecht welcome FC Volendam to Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Dordrecht have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Dordrecht's home record at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Dordrecht) versus 1.50 (FC Volendam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dordrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dordrecht, 1 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2021, ended 2–4 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dordrecht trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Volendam trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 64% and FC Volendam 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 72% | FC Volendam 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.32 xG and FC Volendam 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.970 / defence 1.104 | FC Volendam attack 0.865 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.492. Data: 36 Dordrecht games / 36 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 35% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 39%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | FC Volendam 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 60% | FC Volendam 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 35% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Dordrecht 1.32 / FC Volendam 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.970 / def 1.104 | FC Volendam attack 0.865 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.492 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC Volendam xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC Volendam kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 April 2022 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Dordrecht 3 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam part of?
Dordrecht vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 35% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dordrecht and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC Volendam in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dordrecht's attack at 0.97x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Dordrecht's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.86
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.75
1.43
FC Volendam xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.02
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.43 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 9W 8D 19L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 21W 11D 4L from 36 games, 2.06 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dordrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 8W 9D 1L from 18 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dordrecht are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.14 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC Volendam in 72%.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 21W 11D 4L in their last 36 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.17 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2025, when Dordrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dordrecht's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
0
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Dordrecht 4-1 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 56%, FC Volendam 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dordrecht) and 50% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 33%; Dordrecht have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Dordrecht's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dordrecht's recent games and 50% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat FC Volendam 3-2 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.32 xG and FC Volendam 1.43 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.10 against FC Volendam attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 35% | Draw 26% | FC Volendam 39%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 72%, FC Volendam 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Dordrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.